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Highlights from Chapter 4:

Key Facts

  • The Authority is proposing to use the funds currently available through 2030 to deliver an initial line between Merced and Bakersfield for passenger service before the end of the decade
  • The cost estimates for the Silicon Valley to Central Valley Line and the Phase 1 system are shown in a range and have not changed significantly since the 2018 Business Plan
  • The Authority projects $20.6 to $23.4 billion in total funding available through 2030, based on a Cap-and-Trade funding range up to $750 million per year
  • Extending Cap-and-Trade to 2050 could allow the Authority to finance against future auction proceeds
  • Private investment to support system expansion will likely come after the Silicon Valley to Central Valley Line demonstrates commercial viability
The graphic below illustrates how risk and uncertainty change over a project’s life cycle and how costs become more certain and cost ranges become narrower.

Known and Unknown Risk and Uncertainty:

Chart showing risk and uncertainty

Text description of the chart

Funding History Timeline:

  • 2008

    Proposition 1A Passed

  • 2009

    $2.5 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA)

  • 2010

    $929 million Fiscal Year (FY10) Federal Appropriation

  • 2012

    $2.6 billion State Proposition 1A Appropriation

  • 2014

    $650 million One-time Cap-and-Trade Funds Ongoing 25 percent of annual proceeds from Cap-and-Trade Program Auctions

  • 2017

    $5 billion to $8.3 billion Extension of Cap-and-Trade Program to 2030

More Information

Learn more about the California High-Speed Rail program and business plan online at or contact the Board of Directors at (916) 324-1541 or

Known and Unknown Risk and Uncertainty


The chart plots risk and uncertainty through 4 phases of the High-Speed Rail project. During Conceptual Planning and Design there is high risk and uncertainty of approximately 80%, through Preliminary Engineering through Final Design and Construction, the risk and uncertainty taper off to around 5%.


Numerical values presented on the image:

Phase Known Risk Unknown Risk
Conceptual Planning and Design 20% 80%
Preliminary Engineering 35% 65%
Final Design 80% 20%
Construction 95% 5%