Ridership & Revenue Forecasting

The California High-Speed Rail Authority's approach to high-speed rail ridership and revenue forecasting evolves over time. The most recent ridership and revenue forecasts, as well as operations and maintenance and lifecycle cost estimates, can be found in Chapter 7 of the 2018 Business Plan. The chapter also presents a breakeven analysis, evaluating potential revenue and operations and maintenance cost scenarios.

All forecasts and estimates presented in the 2018 Business Plan rely on the same models used in the 2016 Business Plan. However, key model inputs for all forecasting have been updated to reflect the latest available data, such as population forecasts and automobile operating costs. Since the 2016 Business Plan, the ridership, farebox revenue and operations and maintenance models went through additional internal and external reviews.

Technical supporting documentation for ridership and revenue forecasting can be found under the 2018 Business Plan Source Documents.

Model & Forecast Documentation

• 2018 California High-Speed Rail Business Plan: Ridership and Revenue Risk Analysis
• 2016 Business Plan Ridership and Revenue Technical Supporting Document
• California High-Speed Rail Ridership and Revenue Model: Business Plan Model - Version 3 Model Documentation