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  5. Chapter 5

Highlights from Chapter 5:

Forecasts and Estimates

With the 2020 Business Plan being released less than a year ago, the forecasts and estimates provided in the 2022 Business Plan have not changed, except for a few cost adjustments.

This chapter provides those forecasts and estimates related to the Silicon Valley to Central Valley and San Francisco to Los Angeles/Anaheim lines. These forecasts and estimates are developed pursuant to the Business Plan statutory requirements related to alternative financial scenarios. Areas covered in this chapter include high, medium and low scenarios for:

    • Ridership and revenue forecasts
    • Operations and maintenance (O&M) cost estimates
    • Life cycle cost estimates
    • Cash flow estimate

construction worker belt with tools in front of arch structure

Key Facts

  • This 2022 Business Plan reflects two cost updates:
    • An FY 2021-2022 Program Expenditure Update adopted by the Board in December 2021, summarized in Chapter 3, Funding the Program
    • Updated cost estimates for the Bakersfield to Palmdale project section, which was environmentally cleared in 2021, the Burbank to Los Angeles section, which was cleared in January 2022, and the San José to Merced (Carlucci Road) section, which was cleared in April 2022
  • As outlined in the 2020 Business Plan:
    • By 2040, the system could carry 50 million riders per year and generate nearly $3.4 billion in farebox revenue each year
    • At full operation, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will be equivalent to removing 400,000 vehicles off the road and avoid consumption of 213 million gallons of gasoline

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